As the Jan. 20 inauguration of Barack Obama draws near, editors might push for
stories about what his rise — and the end of the Bush era — may portend for
evangelical Christians. Obama’s victory was a defeat for the religious right,
to be sure. But don’t buy into rumors of the movement’s demise. As Mark Twain
said of reports of his own death, they may be greatly exaggerated.

Yes, it’s true that conservative Christians won’t have much clout in the Obama
administration, certainly not like they did in George W. Bush’s White House.
But experts and insiders don’t agree that the election results will signal
an end to evangelical involvement in political activity.

As Rod Dreher wrote in a recent USA Today column, John McCain didn’t lose because voters were turned off by evangelical hot-button
issues, such as abortion or opposition to gay marriage. He lost because the
economy is moribund, and he and the GOP didn’t have great ideas for reviving
it.

Also, Pew exit polls show that Obama’s gains among white Protestants amounted
to a mere 2 percentage points over John Kerry in 2004. A more recent poll shows that Americans who describe themselves as conservative still represent the largest bloc of voters, and the public’s ideological balance remains unchanged.

Indeed, the best argument against a smaller public role for religious conservatives
may be the success of Proposition 8 in California, which banned same-sex
marriage. (Similar ballot initiatives passed in Arizona, Arkansas and Florida.)
Others argue that the failure of ballot initiatives to curtail or ban abortion
rights balanced out those successes.

Experts say much will depend on what President-elect Obama does in his early days
in office. If he moves swiftly on issues evangelicals oppose, the religious
right will mark those actions as rallying points. If he moves more cautiously,
then Christian conservatives may have to retrench. Perhaps one indication
of his approach is his invitation to megachurch pastor Rick Warren to deliver
the inauguration invocation – an invitation that has upset some gay-rights
supporters.

Here are a few issues to watch in the opening days of the Obama administration:

• Federal funding of abortion: Will the new president reverse regulations that prohibit government funds from going to organizations that perform or “actively promote” abortion?
• Stem cell research: Will he move to lift restrictions on government-financed
  research that uses human embryos?
• Gay rights: Will he take some important, symbolic action, like lifting the
  ban on gays in the military, as Bill Clinton did?

Much will depend on how Obama frames the moral issues involved, and what kind
of concessions he is willing to give evangelicals. For example, in his acceptance
speech during the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Obama pledged
to reduce the number of abortions. Will he deliver? And if so, will evangelicals
support him?

Read a Nov. 18, 2008, Washington Post story on abortion opponents switching
tactics and focusing more on helping to reduce the number of abortions.

Check what local pastors and anti-abortion activists are saying in your area. And
pay attention to the opening salvos in what may be a protracted opposition
campaign — or the first steps to a truce in the “culture wars.”